Showing posts with label Paul Ryan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paul Ryan. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Exploit your Opponents Gaffes Part II:
Turn them into Fund Raising Opportunities
Updated 8/24/2012 9:51AM (See below)

Barely twelve hours had passed after GOP Missouri US Senate Candidate Todd Akins swerved into a political maelstrom with his "legitimate rape" comment, when Debbie Wasserman Shultz, the Democratic National Committee and Florida House Representative sent out emails to party faithful encouraging donations.

During a Sunday Morning show, The Jaco Report, on the Fox Station in Saint Louis, Candidate Akins was asked the predictable hard-facts-make-bad-law question about abortion in the event of rape.  It is a question asked of every Pro-Life candidate and should, according to Ann Coulter, be expect.  Rather than giving defensible prepared answers, Akins went completely off-script:

“From what I understand from doctors, that’s really rare,” Akin said. “If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down. But let’s assume that maybe that didn’t work or something, I think there should be some punishment, but the punishment ought to be of the rapist, and not attacking the child.


Within twelve hours, the Democratic Party turned the gaffe into a fundraising opportunity.  Rep. Wasserman Shultz wrote:


In a year that has brought us no shortage of stunningly backward statements from Republicans on issues affecting women's health, the GOP Senate nominee from Missouri may have just taken the cake.


This morning, Rep. Todd Akin, explaining his opposition to abortion even in cases of rape, said that victims of "legitimate rape" don't get pregnant because "the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down."

What exactly, Rep. Akin, is an "illegitimate" rape? And what are these unnamed "ways" women have of avoiding pregnancy after being (legitimately) raped?

Now, Akin's choice of words isn't the real issue here. The real issue is a Republican party -- led by Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan -- whose policies on women and their health are dangerously wrong.

The email then invites recipients to donate to the Democratic Party.

Romney immediately disavowed Akins' statement, “Congressman’s Akin comments on rape are insulting, inexcusable, and, frankly, wrong.   Like millions of other Americans, we found them to be offensive.”

Akins for his part sought to quell the furor over his remarks, "This weekend I made a mistake. I used the wrong words in the wrong way. What I said was ill-conceived and it was wrong and for that I apologize. I’m a dad of two daughters and I want tough justice for sexual predators and I’ve always had a compassionate heart for the victims of sexual assault. 



The people from Missouri that elected me know I’m not perfect. We all make mistakes. When you make a mistake what you need to do is tell people you’re sorry. Don’t try and hide it. That’s why I have repeatedly said that I am very sorry for my comments.  Just because somebody makes a mistake doesn’t make them useless. We need a conservative in the United States Senate, and I am running to replace Claire McCaskill and get our country back on track.”

Unfortunately for Akins, what President Ronald Reagan said to Walter Mondale during the 1984 debate, in politics "if you are explaining; you are losing."


Akins' opponent, vulnerable US Senator Claire McCaskill, has also seized upon the gaffe seeking to raise money on the issue.  "Akin's record is riddled with policies and votes that hurt women. He thinks many forms of contraception — including the pill — should be illegal and voted against equal pay for equal work.  Together, we can make sure that Missouri has a Senator who has a proven track record of fighting for women."

A good gaffe, as discussed earlier, should further a perceived negative stereotype of the politician.  Here, an ardently pro-life Republican is painted as ignorant and hostile toward women.  This particular gaffe is so critical, in a swing state they may determine the balance of power in the Senate as well as Missouri's Electoral Votes, that Conservative leaders and pundits have called on Akins to withdraw so that another conservative candidate can face McCaskill.  


Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Presidential Politics: Picking a Vice-President
Not much of a help in the end

Mitt Romney selected Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan to be his Vice-President thankfully ending weeks of uninformed speculation about who he would pick.  The choice is often more symbolic than substantive in that it gives insight into the thinking process of the Presidential Candidate.  

Traditionally, the Vice-President Candidate should add assets where the Presidential candidate is lacking.  (Thus it can be an interesting window into the candidate's self-perceived weak spots.)  There are several areas where a Vice-President can augment the campaign in one or more ways:

  • Boosting the Outsider or Insider factor of the ticket.  Clinton (as Governor was an outsider) and he selected Al Gore.   Reagan selected George H.W. Bush.  Dukakis selected Lloyd Bentsen 
  • Boosting the Ticket's Experience.  Younger, less experienced Presidential Candidates need an experienced elder statesman on the ticket.  Obama selected Joe Biden.   George W. Bush selected Dick Cheney.  Dukakis selected Lloyd Bentsen
  • Boosting a Political Faction's Representation.  Presidential Candidates may select a trusted member of the more liberal/conservative wing of their party in order secure their passionate support.  McCain (a moderate Republican) selected the more conservative Sarah Palin.  George HW Bush selected more conservative Dan Quayle.  Robert Dole selected more conservative Jack Kemp.  Ronald Reagan selected more moderate George HW Bush.  
  • Boost the Demographic Appeal.  Adding a Vice President of a particular demographic group may attract votes from that group.  McCain (2008) and Walter Mondale (1984) selected female Vice-Presidents, Sarah Palin and Geraldine Ferraro respectively.  
  • Boost State or Regional Appeal.  Adding a Politician from a different region, or a specific battle state may help Candidate do better in that location.  John Kerry (from the Northeast) selected John Edwards from North Carolina.  Dukakis (from the Northeast) selected Texan Lloyd Bentsen.  George HW Bush selected rust-belt Indiana Senator Dan Quayle.
  • Boost Party Unity.  It is not uncommon for the Presidential nominee to select one of his rivals for the nomination in order to unite the party.  Obama (2008) selected former rival Joe Biden.  John Kerry (2004) selected John Edwards.  Reagan (1980) selected former rival George HW Bush.  

Of all the above reasons, enhancing state or regional appeal appears to be the least effective rationale for selecting a Vice President.  States that trend toward one party or another typically stay that way.  John Edwards failed to carry his home state of North Carolina for Kerry in 2004.  George HW Bush still carried Texas despite Bentsen being on the opposite ticket.  (Although GHW Bush  hailed from Texas as well.)  

My personal assessment is that the Ryan pick by Romney boosts state and regional appeal as well as energizes the Tea Party faction of the GOP.  Ryan also adds insider Federal Government experience to the ticket.  It remains to be seen if the addition puts Wisconsin's ten electoral votes into play.  The addition comes at a possible cost:   Democratic Strategists believe Ryan's Medicare Proposals will alienate the Senior voters in Florida.  With 29 Electoral votes there are very few realistic paths to the necessary 270 Electoral votes needed to win for Romney.

QUESTION: Were you ever influenced for a candidate you otherwise would not have supported - because of the Vice Presidential pick?