The Electoral College I: Why we have Battleground States

Who votes for the President? You probably don't know.

Wellington Webb, Terry Philips, Camilia Auger, Pam Shaddock, Jenifer Trujillo-Sanchez, Don Strickland, Ann Knollman, Polly Baca, and Margaret Atencio went to designated place in 2008 and cast their votes for President and Vice President of the United States.  They were the only people to vote for President that day in Colorado.  

The Battle for Middle Earth

Only True Partisans think the other side are Orcs

Lost in the critique of the purloined video recording of Mitt Romney's comments to wealthy donors released last week, was his explanation why the campaign did not more aggressively attack Obama as a corrupt failure.  Romney (correctly) explained that elections are won by attracting the five to seven percent of uncommitted voters that are open to changing their prior votes.

Romney then gave a fascinating insight into his campaign's thinking about which message best sells to this critical audience:

Gaffes III: Candidates should never openly Psychoanalyze Voters

And if they do...they should only do it in glowing terms.

Speaking to a select group of wealthy contributors, the Presidential Candidate was asked why he felt that his message found difficulty taking hold within certain portions of the American Public, the Candidate set off an unintentional firestorm by guessing.  This prompted the media to psychoanalyze the candidate's true motivation.

In 2012 that Candidate was Mitt Romney.

In 2008 that Candidate was Barack Obama.

Political Polls: Tea Leaves for the Campaign Manager

When they go your way - talk them up.

When they don't - invoke Harry S. Truman.

Political polls are the proverbial tea leaves of political campaigns and become news stories in their own right.  Political polls are difficult creatures particularly in Presidential Elections because the Electoral College System narrows the focus down to 18 swing states - five of which lean Democratic and five lean Republican.  National Presidential polls are, if not worthless, very limited in value because we do not elect the President based upon a national vote - something Al Gore ruefully notes at most speaking engagements. 

Campaign Fundraising III: When you raise it matters

Email and the internet permit campaigns to be more targeted and timely in their fundraising efforts, particularly when it comes to raising money prior to the Federal Election Campaign Finance Disclosure deadlines.  Only slightly less important as how much a campaign raises - is when it gets raised.  Campaign must disclose how much they raised, from whom and in what amounts each month and quarter.  What was merely a regulatory event has grown to become a political news story.

When campaigns out raise their opposition during a reporting period it supports an argument that they have greater support from the public; and better means to follow through on delivering their message.  Out raising your opposition in the months leading up to the election gives the impression that you have momentum - even if you are behind in the total dollar amount raised.

As we discussed earlier, the drum beat out of both the Obama and Romney campaign is that the Romney Campaign and the GOP have out raised the opposition during the last several months.  Yet Democrats, at least as of July 31, 2012, had raised 587.7 million compared to the GOP $524.2 million.  Yet the fundraising emails from Democrats need a crisis to encourage people to donate.  

On August 31, 2012 - the deadline, the Democratic National Committee sent the following email for their Chair - Debbie Wasserman Shultz:

I'm going to guess your inbox is pretty full today. But think of it this way: This is one of the last fundraising deadlines before Election Day.With just 10 weeks left to go, we have limited time to make a difference for Democrats nationwide.If their races were already in the bag, if they already had all the resources they need, and if we didn't have that much on the line this year, I wouldn't ask you to make a donation today.But the stakes are high, President Obama and many Democrats across the country are in razor-close races, and these candidates need our help before they head into the final months.So if you can, please make a donation to Democrats before tonight's critical fundraising deadline:https://my.democrats.org/Tonights-DeadlineTomorrow morning, may you wake up to an uncluttered inbox -- and may Democrats in races across the country wake up to see that they're exactly where they need to be.Thanks for making that difference,DebbieDebbie Wasserman SchultzChairDemocratic National CommitteeP.S. -- We're closer to the finish line than you think. Chip in what you can today.

The email acknowledges that email inboxes must be pretty full today with requests for donations - showing just how critical that campaigns view the Finance Reports.

Use Meaningless Words II: Divisive

Rhetoric: Divisive proposals/policies are bad!

Reality: Big Issues can't be solved without upsetting someone - it means we have real choices

Divisive Defined: A derogatory label attached to an opponent's policies, proposals, or statements implying hostility, disdain, unwillingness to compromise, or callow disregard toward another group of people in an effort to create disunity, disharmony, and dissatisfaction. See also "wedge issues."  

When National Public Radio's Guy Raz asked Ari Shapiro how , Shapiro discussed the crowd's 

Discussing Paul Ryan's impact on Romney campaign events crowds, National Public Radio's Ari Shapiro told Guy Raz, "They really love Paul Ryan. They're passionate about this guy."

"What is it about Paul Ryan that gets them motivated?" Raz asked.

"They like the ideas he puts out," Shapiro said, "They like the budget, his willingness to not just criticize the other side, what the Democrats are doing, but put out proposals that are really controversial, that are, you know, very divisive in some ways, that have drawn a lot of criticism from Democrats. The Republicans I'm talking to see that as a badge of honor, and they think it was a bold decision of Romney to bring Ryan onto the ticket knowing that he's going to take all this incoming fire."

Political campaigns, and elections in particular, are - and should be - about competing policy ideas how to solve the issues of the day.  Some issues, especially important issues, cannot solved with universal consensus.  An election without differing proposed solutions and policies is an election with no meaningful choice at all. 

Still, it is a rhetorical device used across the political spectrum.  In his acceptance speech, Paul Ryan said, "You would think that any president, whatever his party, would make job creation, and nothing else, his first order of economic business.  But this president didn't do that. Instead, we got a long, divisive, all-or-nothing attempt to put the federal government in charge of health care."

Policies or proposals that target, favorably or unfavorably, one group over another are also labeled "divisive."  Two current examples:  

Proposals favoring one economic group over another, particularly in tax policy are labeled "divisive."  “'Congressman Cicilline engages in divisive class warfare where he tries to paint himself as someone who will stand up to the wealthy on behalf of the middle class,, said Doherty Campaign Manager Ian Prior."

Opposition Gay Marriage, particularly opposition, is labeled "divisive."  When Romney expressed support for traditional marriage, the Gay & Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation wrote, "If Gov. Romney truly desires to represent all Americans, Log Cabin Republicans encourages him to avoid divisive social issues and focus on jobs and the economy."

QUESTION:  Do you agree that "divisive" is an overused word in politics today?  What is an example you have seen where it was used correctly?