The First Casualty: A Political Campaign Lexicon

Presidential Politics: Picking a Vice-President

Not much of a help in the end

Mitt Romney selected Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan to be his Vice-President thankfully ending weeks of uninformed speculation about who he would pick.  The choice is often more symbolic than substantive in that it gives insight into the thinking process of the Presidential Candidate.  

Traditionally, the Vice-President Candidate should add assets where the Presidential candidate is lacking.  (Thus it can be an interesting window into the candidate's self-perceived weak spots.)  There are several areas where a Vice-President can augment the campaign in one or more ways:

• Boosting the Outsider or Insider factor of the ticket.  Clinton (as Governor was an outsider) and he selected Al Gore.   Reagan selected George H.W. Bush.  Dukakis selected Lloyd Bentsen.  

• Boosting the Ticket's Experience.  Younger, less experienced Presidential Candidates need an experienced elder statesman on the ticket.  Obama selected Joe Biden.   George W. Bush selected Dick Cheney.  Dukakis selected Lloyd Bentsen. 

• Boosting a Political Faction's Representation.  Presidential Candidates may select a trusted member of the more liberal/conservative wing of their party in order secure their passionate support.  McCain (a moderate Republican) selected the more conservative Sarah Palin.  George HW Bush selected more conservative Dan Quayle.  Robert Dole selected more conservative Jack Kemp.  Ronald Reagan selected more moderate George HW Bush.  

• Boost the Demographic Appeal.  Adding a Vice President of a particular demographic group may attract votes from that group.  McCain (2008) and Walter Mondale (1984) selected female Vice-Presidents, Sarah Palin and Geraldine Ferraro respectively.  

• Boost State or Regional Appeal.  Adding a Politician from a different region, or a specific battle state may help Candidate do better in that location.  John Kerry (from the Northeast) selected John Edwards from North Carolina.  Dukakis (from the Northeast) selected Texan Lloyd Bentsen.  George HW Bush selected rust-belt Indiana Senator Dan Quayle.

• Boost Party Unity.  It is not uncommon for the Presidential nominee to select one of his rivals for the nomination in order to unite the party.  Obama (2008) selected former rival Joe Biden.  John Kerry (2004) selected John Edwards.  Reagan (1980) selected former rival George HW Bush.  

Of all the above reasons, enhancing state or regional appeal appears to be the least effective rationale for selecting a Vice President.  States that trend toward one party or another typically stay that way.  John Edwards failed to carry his home state of North Carolina for Kerry in 2004.  George HW Bush still carried Texas despite Bentsen being on the opposite ticket.  (Although GHW Bush  hailed from Texas as well.)  

My personal assessment is that the Ryan pick by Romney boosts state and regional appeal as well as energizes the Tea Party faction of the GOP.  Ryan also adds insider Federal Government experience to the ticket.  It remains to be seen if the addition puts Wisconsin's ten electoral votes into play.  The addition comes at a possible cost:   Democratic Strategists believe Ryan's Medicare Proposals will alienate the Senior voters in Florida.  With 29 Electoral votes there are very few realistic paths to the necessary 270 Electoral votes needed to win for Romney.

QUESTION: Were you ever influenced for a candidate you otherwise would not have supported - because of the Vice Presidential pick?