Lost in the critique of the purloined video recording of Mitt Romney's comments to wealthy donors released last week, was his explanation why the campaign did not more aggressively attack Obama as a corrupt failure. Romney (correctly) explained that elections are won by attracting the five to seven percent of uncommitted voters that are open to changing their prior votes.
Romney then gave a fascinating insight into his campaign's thinking about which message best sells to this critical audience:
"We speak with voters across the country about their perceptions. Those people I told you - the five to six or seven percent that we have to bring onto our side - they all voted for Barack Obama four years ago.
So, and by the way, when you say to them, "Do you think Barack Obama is a failure?" they overwhelmingly say no. They like him. But when you say, "Are you disappointed that his policies haven't worked?" they say yes.
And because they voted for him, they don't want to be told that they were wrong, that he's a bad guy, that he did bad things, that he's corrupt. Those people that we have to get, they want to believe they did the right thing, be he just wasn't up to the task.
They love the phrase that he's "over his head." But if we're - but we, but you see, you and I, we spend our day with Republicans. We spend our days with people who agree with us. And these people are people who voted for him and don't agree with us.
And so the things that animate us are not the things that animate them. And the best success I have at speaking with those people is saying, you know, the President has been a disappointment. He told you he'd keep unemployment below eight percent. Hasn't been below eight percent since.
Fifty percent of kids coming out of school can't get a job. Fifty percent. Fifty percent of the kids in high school in our 50 largest cities won't graduate from high school. What're they going to do? These are the kinds of things that I can say to that audience that they nod their head and say, "Yeah, I think you're right."
Romney's comments apply to both Republican and Democrats in any race where neither party holds a commanding majority of registered voters. Simply put - neither party can win an election without appealing to more independent voters than the other side.
It is the registered voting uncommitted independent voters who decide most elections in the United States. These voters are not persuaded by the same passions that move the partisan base. Therefore the message has to toned down.
Consistent with this, the Romney campaign released a Spanish-Language advertisement in early September 2012 featuring former 2008-Obama Hispanic Voters:
“I voted for Obama four years ago. I believed in what he said," says a man named Gustavo Pinto.
Adds Sandra Mora, “He tells us a lot of nice things, then forgets about you."
"He seems like a good guy," Roberto Serna says, "but he hasn't worked for us."
QUESTION: DO YOU AGREE THAT THE ELECTION IS DECIDED BY 5 to 7 PERCENT OF THE VOTERS? IS THIS A GOOD THING?
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