Ground Game: Orcas versus Narwhals

What we do hasn't changed - only how we do it.

Increasingly the basic strategy of identifying your supporters and getting them to the polls has been augmented by internet smart phone technologies.  Not so long ago campaigns identified supports two ways: (1) same-party voter registration rolls; and (2) canvassing voters by knocking on their doors or calling their telephones.   Then on election day, political party poll watcher would cross of a voters name at the precinct vote station when he or she arrived to cast their ballot.  Throughout the day party workers would collect these sheets, and campaign offices would call those supporters who had not yet voted to urge, remind, and in some cases, drive them down to the polls.

Ground Game: Field Offices

Field Offices Make the Difference

Ohio Map from Daily Beast showing Obama (Blue) Field
Offices compared to Romney (Red) Offices.

DEFINED:  Ground Game are campaign efforts to personally connect to supporters with the goals of identifying, communicating and motivating supporters to vote.    

After the votes are counted, inevitably the wave of stories about how Romney lost and why Obama won came flooding through the news - often with a smug "It-was-all-so-apparant" told-you-so tone.  

The 2012 Election Post-Mortem developed a number themes that have consequences for later elections.  The most important is the enduring critical importance of having a ground campaign.

Campaigns use a variety of methods to communicate with voters.  The most expensive, probably least efficient, and most annoying are the indiscriminate television commercial advertisements.  On the other end of the spectrum is having a supporter contact a personal friend.  The former is easy but massively expensive and inefficient.  The latter is harder to put into place and just as expensive but vastly more effective.

Obama confounded two pre-election predictions with his ground game:  The election would be so close that recounts were likely and his supporters would not run out in the same numbers as they did in 2008.  He did this with a superior ground game with campaign field offices as the base building block.

Obama had more Campaign Field Offices.  These field offices are boots-on-the-ground contacts to the retail voter.  Obama never closed many of his field offices in battleground states.  The number of field offices reflected critical disadvantage for Romney who only secured the nomination (arguably) in April of 2012.  

STATE                          OBAMA FIELD OFFICES              ROMNEY FIELD OFFICES

Ohio                                          131                                                40

Florida                                       106                                               47

Virginia                                       61                                                30

Such was the lag that even if Romney wanted to open up as many offices - he did not have the time.

Obama's Field Offices had one Job: Re-Elect Obama

According to the Atlantic's Molly Ball all of the Obama offices had one thing in common: they were almost exclusively devoted to Barack Obama.  Republican Field Offices typically were sponsored by the local or national GOP party and were devoted primarily to local candidates.  This may reflect, according to Ms. Ball, the fact that Romney campaign - to a larger degree - left much of the ground campaign to the National Republican party.

Temperament

It says a lot about who and where you think you are...

In general:

Candidates who are behind go on the attack.  

Candidates who are ahead stay positive.

Mitt Romney took a surprisingly subdued tone during the final Presidential Debate that focused on foreign policy.  With discontent and criticism mounting on the Administration's actions and statements over the terrorist attack on September 11, 2012 in Libya, Iran's continued pursuit of nuclear weapons, and the Fast and Furious debacle in Mexico - there was plenty of ammunition for Romney.  Following acrimonious tenor and attacks of the previous debates after Denver's first debate - many were surprised when Romney declined to attack Obama as forcefully.  

The only Romney attack that resembled the previous debates came when the Governor explained his characterization of the Obama's trip overseas as an Apology Tour:

"Mr. President, the reason I call it an apology tour is because you went to the Middle East and you flew to — to Egypt and to Saudi Arabia and to — to Turkey and Iraq. And — and by way, you skipped Israel, our closest friend in the region, but you went to the other nations. And by the way, they noticed that you skipped Israel. And then in those nations and on Arabic TV you said that America had been dismissive and derisive. You said that on occasion America had dictated to other nations. Mr. President, America has not dictated to other nations. We have freed other nations from dictators."

Debate Performance I: A Report Card Checklist

How they do depends on eight factors

Entering into the final stretch of the 2012 Presidential Campaign, the debates are upon us.  Debates are common place in State and Federal elections at all levels.  Presidential Campaign Debates are an opportunity to see well-funded and well-prepared candidates bring on their A game in the most watched political debates of the year.  

The value of the debates derive from the format.  Two candidates meet in an unscripted, uncontrolled environment without tele-prompters, notes, or back up.  The debates often provide an insight into the candidate's temperament under pressure.  In truth we elect a candidate less because of their positions on past issues, but rather their character to handle unforeseen future issues.

Liar...Liar

It's typically not a good sign....

Following his universally panned first debate performance, Barack Obama's campaign shifted the tone and tenor of their attacks against challenger Mitt Romney.  Before the debate Romney was the out-of-touch millionaire with off-shore tax havens seeking to tax the middle class in order to give the top 1% a tax break.  Romney looked down upon the 47% hard working Americans who, according to Obama, paid their fair share of taxes while Romney paid only 14% of his income in taxes.

Now Romney is a liar.  

The Electoral College I: Why we have Battleground States

Who votes for the President? You probably don't know.

Wellington Webb, Terry Philips, Camilia Auger, Pam Shaddock, Jenifer Trujillo-Sanchez, Don Strickland, Ann Knollman, Polly Baca, and Margaret Atencio went to designated place in 2008 and cast their votes for President and Vice President of the United States.  They were the only people to vote for President that day in Colorado.  

The Battle for Middle Earth

Only True Partisans think the other side are Orcs

Lost in the critique of the purloined video recording of Mitt Romney's comments to wealthy donors released last week, was his explanation why the campaign did not more aggressively attack Obama as a corrupt failure.  Romney (correctly) explained that elections are won by attracting the five to seven percent of uncommitted voters that are open to changing their prior votes.

Romney then gave a fascinating insight into his campaign's thinking about which message best sells to this critical audience:

Gaffes III: Candidates should never openly Psychoanalyze Voters

And if they do...they should only do it in glowing terms.

Speaking to a select group of wealthy contributors, the Presidential Candidate was asked why he felt that his message found difficulty taking hold within certain portions of the American Public, the Candidate set off an unintentional firestorm by guessing.  This prompted the media to psychoanalyze the candidate's true motivation.

In 2012 that Candidate was Mitt Romney.

In 2008 that Candidate was Barack Obama.