Liar...Liar

It's typically not a good sign....

Following his universally panned first debate performance, Barack Obama's campaign shifted the tone and tenor of their attacks against challenger Mitt Romney.  Before the debate Romney was the out-of-touch millionaire with off-shore tax havens seeking to tax the middle class in order to give the top 1% a tax break.  Romney looked down upon the 47% hard working Americans who, according to Obama, paid their fair share of taxes while Romney paid only 14% of his income in taxes.

Now Romney is a liar.  

Lexicon: Spending Words

Some words about spending don't really mean what you think.

It goes beyond the eye-rolling the typical American did when confronted with Bill Clinton's legalistic parsing of the word "is."  When accused of lying to the Grand Jury when he said "There is nothing going on between us," Clinton later defended his statement as truthful saying, "It depends upon what the meaning of the word 'is' is."  He was only continuing the frustrating tradition of lawyers and politicians to make words not mean what most people think they mean.

Two areas of government activity - taxing and spending - create an enormous amount of emotional responses both good and bad.  Today we will talk about words used about spending that don't necessarily mean what you think.

Spending Cuts - doesn't mean you are spending less.

According to National Public Radio, both President Obama and Rep. Paul Ryan have proposed alternative cuts in spending.  According to the news report, Obama " laid out a sweeping vision to cut government deficits by more than $4 trillion in 12 years through tax increases and spending cuts phased in over time."    At the same time, Rep. Paul Ryan, according to NPR proposed a "recent budget blueprint calls for more than $6.2 trillion in spending cuts — many unspecified — over the next decade."  

Neither man proposes a budget where the United States Federal Government spend less money ten years from now than it spends today.  Instead these proposals predict less spending compared to what would occur under the Congressional Budget Office's Baseline Projections.  This projection assumes all current laws stay in place.  So when you "cut" spending in Washington it doesn't mean you are spending less money this year compared to last year - it really means you assume you will spend much more in the future than your plan.

Investing - it sounds better than spending.

When Barack Obama signed the stimulus bill signed the 2009 stimulus bill, he used the word "invest" or  "investment" fifteen times in his speech.  Politicians  shy away from characterizing Government expenditures as "spending."  The word suggests a loss - that the money is spent, gone, with nothing to show for it.  An investment, on the other hand, suggests that we will obtain a return on that money - indeed we will get more money back than we spent.  

QUESTION:  What other words have you heard politicians use instead of the word "spending?"

The Electoral College I: Why we have Battleground States

Who votes for the President? You probably don't know.

Wellington Webb, Terry Philips, Camilia Auger, Pam Shaddock, Jenifer Trujillo-Sanchez, Don Strickland, Ann Knollman, Polly Baca, and Margaret Atencio went to designated place in 2008 and cast their votes for President and Vice President of the United States.  They were the only people to vote for President that day in Colorado.  

The Battle for Middle Earth

Only True Partisans think the other side are Orcs

Lost in the critique of the purloined video recording of Mitt Romney's comments to wealthy donors released last week, was his explanation why the campaign did not more aggressively attack Obama as a corrupt failure.  Romney (correctly) explained that elections are won by attracting the five to seven percent of uncommitted voters that are open to changing their prior votes.

Romney then gave a fascinating insight into his campaign's thinking about which message best sells to this critical audience:

Gaffes III: Candidates should never openly Psychoanalyze Voters

And if they do...they should only do it in glowing terms.

Speaking to a select group of wealthy contributors, the Presidential Candidate was asked why he felt that his message found difficulty taking hold within certain portions of the American Public, the Candidate set off an unintentional firestorm by guessing.  This prompted the media to psychoanalyze the candidate's true motivation.

In 2012 that Candidate was Mitt Romney.

In 2008 that Candidate was Barack Obama.

Political Polls: Tea Leaves for the Campaign Manager

When they go your way - talk them up.

When they don't - invoke Harry S. Truman.

Political polls are the proverbial tea leaves of political campaigns and become news stories in their own right.  Political polls are difficult creatures particularly in Presidential Elections because the Electoral College System narrows the focus down to 18 swing states - five of which lean Democratic and five lean Republican.  National Presidential polls are, if not worthless, very limited in value because we do not elect the President based upon a national vote - something Al Gore ruefully notes at most speaking engagements. 

Campaign Fundraising III: When you raise it matters

Email and the internet permit campaigns to be more targeted and timely in their fundraising efforts, particularly when it comes to raising money prior to the Federal Election Campaign Finance Disclosure deadlines.  Only slightly less important as how much a campaign raises - is when it gets raised.  Campaign must disclose how much they raised, from whom and in what amounts each month and quarter.  What was merely a regulatory event has grown to become a political news story.

When campaigns out raise their opposition during a reporting period it supports an argument that they have greater support from the public; and better means to follow through on delivering their message.  Out raising your opposition in the months leading up to the election gives the impression that you have momentum - even if you are behind in the total dollar amount raised.

As we discussed earlier, the drum beat out of both the Obama and Romney campaign is that the Romney Campaign and the GOP have out raised the opposition during the last several months.  Yet Democrats, at least as of July 31, 2012, had raised 587.7 million compared to the GOP $524.2 million.  Yet the fundraising emails from Democrats need a crisis to encourage people to donate.  

On August 31, 2012 - the deadline, the Democratic National Committee sent the following email for their Chair - Debbie Wasserman Shultz:

I'm going to guess your inbox is pretty full today. But think of it this way: This is one of the last fundraising deadlines before Election Day.With just 10 weeks left to go, we have limited time to make a difference for Democrats nationwide.If their races were already in the bag, if they already had all the resources they need, and if we didn't have that much on the line this year, I wouldn't ask you to make a donation today.But the stakes are high, President Obama and many Democrats across the country are in razor-close races, and these candidates need our help before they head into the final months.So if you can, please make a donation to Democrats before tonight's critical fundraising deadline:https://my.democrats.org/Tonights-DeadlineTomorrow morning, may you wake up to an uncluttered inbox -- and may Democrats in races across the country wake up to see that they're exactly where they need to be.Thanks for making that difference,DebbieDebbie Wasserman SchultzChairDemocratic National CommitteeP.S. -- We're closer to the finish line than you think. Chip in what you can today.

The email acknowledges that email inboxes must be pretty full today with requests for donations - showing just how critical that campaigns view the Finance Reports.